Electricity forecast for Iceland 2015-2050


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EFLA has prepared a new electricity forecast for Iceland

The Icelandic Energy Forecasts Committee has released a new forecast of electricity consumption in the country until 2050. Estimated consumption in the long term is now somewhat higher than in the previous forecast from 2010, especially electricity for energy-intensive industries as such a consumption is only included in electricity forecast when all power contracts have been finalized. The forecast for general use has been accurate over the years, but the real consumption has proven to be a little bit higher than expected over the last few years due to greater use by general industry but residential consumption has been less than expected.

For a long time residential consumption (excluding space heating) was growing quit fast and peaked in 2009 when it was on the average 4.9 MWh/home. Since then, consumption has declined steadily, reaching 4.5 MWh/home in 2014 and it has not been this low in a decade. The main causes for the decrease are changes in lighting as less energy intensive light bulb than the incandescent bulbs have come to the scene and household appliances have become more efficient. On the other hand number of devices in homes has been increasing, but most of the new equipment types are energy efficient. This trend will continue and the consumption will reached a minimum of about 4.0 MWh/home. New types of light bulb will also influence the horticulture sector in a few year time.

Over the last few years the fastest consumption growth has been in general industry and from 2009 to 2014, the increase is 137 GWh or 24%. About half of the increase is in fishmeal industry and other fish industry has grown 20%. In the coming years it is expected that this consumption will continue to increase use mostly due to electrification of the fishmeal industry. The growth of electricity consumption in commerce has been slowing in recent years. In the coming decades drastic changes are expected regarding the energy sources used in transport and it is expected that electricity will play a big role. By the end of the forecast period it is expected that most new cars will be driven directly or indirectly by electricity and that this change in the larger commercial vehicles will be well under way.

The electricity working group of the Energy Forecast Committee has members from Landsnet, Orkustofnun, Norðurorka, Veitur, Rarik and Samorka. In the Energy Forecast committee are members from Orkustofnun, Hagstofa Íslands og Þjóðskrá Íslands as well as the chairmen of the electricity group, the geothermal energy group and the fossil fuel group.

Jón Vilhjálmsson at EFLA consulting engineers provides further information about the electricity forecast.


Click here for a pdf of the electricity forecast (only in Icelandic).